Food security and the protection of arable land in view of future demographic growth in China - 中欧社会论坛 - China Europa Forum

Food security and the protection of arable land in view of future demographic growth in China

Authors: Feng Zhiming

Studies have shown that the total surface area of arable land and the average surface area per person are decreasing steadily. Because of the effect of the policy that ensures the requisition-compensation that favours construction projects on arable land, the principal cause of the reduction of arable land will be the abandonment of cultivated land for ecological reasons. This surface area could be reduced to as little as 120 million acres, or an average surface area of 813 square metres per person in 2035. Moreover, food consumption per person and total demand will continue to grow in line with the growth of the population and increasing consumption. Food demand per person (fodder and corn included) will reach 400 to 410 kg in 2010, 420 to 435 kg in 2020 and 450 to 470 kg in 2033 when the population peaks. At the same time, total food demand for these years will reach 541 to 555 metric tonnes, 603 to 625 tonnes and 663 to 692 tonnes respectively. In 2020, the food production capacity based on the availability of 120 million acres of arable land should cover the needs of a population of 1,436 billion. In 2033, based on food consumption of 450 kg per person, the productivity of arable land in China available in the future should satisfy the needs of a record population of 1,473 billion. Limited arable land resources are an obstacle to a new increase in the available per capita quantity. If a surface area of 120 million acres of arable land cannot be guaranteed in the future, food security will be severely threatened.

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